Jakarta. This year’s legislative election result doesn’t look too good for the Golkar Party. With only 14.3 percent of the votes, the party needs to form a coalition with at least one political party if it wants to nominate its own candidate in the July presidential election, just around the corner.
Yet, while other political parties are busy approaching potential allies, Golkar has reportedly been slow in building ties with others.
Golkar’s closest competitor the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) swiftly formed a coalition with the National Democrat Party (NasDem).
The Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) has moved quickly to talk of a coalition with the United Development Party (PPP), despite divisions among the latter over chairman Suryadharma Ali’s support for Gerindra’s leader, Prabowo Subianto.
Analysts also warn that Aburizal Bakrie’s insistence on running as Golkar’s presidential candidate is impacting the party’s desirability as a coalition partner.
Aburizal’s poor polling figures suggest Golkar would fare better if the business tycoon settled for a vice presidential nomination and offered the top spot to an alternative candidate.
Change of plan
Political analyst Andrinof A. Chaniago said that with a slim chance of winning the presidential election, Golkar needs to change its plans, if it still wants to run in the July 9 election.
Andrinof said that the party should focus on promoting its potential members to be in the cabinet.
“Since the chance to win is slim, they have to change the goal from winning the presidential election to supporting another presidential candidate from another party by forming a coalition. But most importantly Golkar should promote its members,” he said.
From the party itself, there are two politicians that have openly expressed their intention to become a running mate for other presidential candidates, namely Akbar Tanjung, the party’s chief patron, and Jusuf Kalla, a former vice president and Golkar’s former chairman.
Moving at a snail’s pace
Analysts have described Golkar as being too slow in building bridges with other parties to form a coalition.
Andrinof said that if Golkar keeps its snail’s pace, it could be far behind other parties.
However, Muhammad Qodari of Indo Barometer, a polling institute, said that even though Golkar had not been seen meeting with other parties, it didn’t mean that it hadn’t.
“Many considered Golkar as not as attractive as other political parties because it has not been seen making approaches … but who knows? They could be playing behind the scenes,” Qodari said.
Qodari continued that even though Aburizal’s electability is not as high as PDI-P’s Joko Widodo, or Gerindra’s Prabowo, the Golkar chairman still has a chance to compete in the election.
Joko, the Jakarta governor, is widely tipped to win the presidential contest, with Prabowo second. But the appeal of Golkar as a party is still quite high as evident in the legislative election in which the party garnered more than 14 percent of votes, according to quick count results. Official results are due out on May 9.
“[Because of this] it’s quite easy for Golkar to attract other parties,” Qodari said. “Aburizal is a cooperative and egalitarian figure. He has a big chance to get figures from other political parties to form a coalition. Therefore it’s still very possible for Golkar to run in the presidential race.”
Qodari said that Golkar does not need to worry about its chances of forming a coalition or to nominate its own presidential candidate.
“Golkar needs only one party for a coalition. It can take it easy and not panic,” he said. “Most other parties will try hard to find a partner for a coalition. Let’s just wait and see what happens next month.”
Intense communication
Hanta Yuda, executive director of the Pol-Tracking Institute, said that despite the probability that Golkar will fail to win in the presidential election, the party still has a great asset to form a coalition with other parties as well as with the “Prabowo axis” or “Joko axis.”
“That is why the Golkar needs to communicate intensively with other parties,” Hanta said. “It is quite difficult for Golkar to find partners for a coalition, so they must move actively to convince other parties to form a coalition.”
Hanta said that other parties would likely prefer the PDI-P or Gerindra in their priority list as a political partner.
“However, anything could happen. This is just one prediction,” he said. “In addition, within Golkar, the highest electability lies in Aburizal and Jusuf Kalla. So, Aburizal still has a chance to run.”
Hanta agreed that should Golkar decide to cancel its plans to nominate Aburizal as a presidential candidate and seek only to secure a vice presidential seat, it would create more dynamics for the party to form a coalition with others.
“[Then they] could join any party whether it is the PDI-P or Gerindra,” he said. “In addition, Golkar needs only one party to meet the presidential threshold.”
“Interestingly, the Golkar axis is somehow in a difficult position. They have always been a ‘queen’ when it comes to the governmental coalition but on the other hand when it comes to a presidential coalition, it is a bit tough for them because they lack strong figures,” Hanta added.
Other possibilities
Qodari said that Golkar was not the only party that might struggle to find a coalition partner.
“Gerindra is also in jeopardy. The party only garnered 11.8 percent of votes. If it wants to be safe, it needs support from two mediocre parties. But, it had just recently failed to secure support from the United Development Party,” he said.
“On the other hand Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party, could also form its own coalition. SBY has unique bargaining power. Things could change. Rather than there being the Jokowi axis, ARB axis, and Prabowo axis that there is perceived to be now, things could switch to a Jokowi axis, Prabowo axis and SBY axis,” Qodari said.
Source/Fuente: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/coalition-yet-bakries-refusal-budge-...
