Violence in Indonesian Polls Portends Ill For High-Stakes Presidential Race

Fuente: 
Jakarta Globe
Fecha de publicación: 
18 Jun 2014

Jakarta. Former Constitutional Court chief justice Mahfud M.D., the campaign manager for presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, has likened his campaign strategy to going to war.

And a war is what some observers fear, following a rousing comeback by Prabowo against his rival, Joko Widodo, in their second presidential debate on Sunday, and opinion polls that show the former military general closing the gap on, or even overtaking, the popular Jakarta governor.

A poll by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), conducted from June 1-9, showed Joko leading with 45 percent over Prabowo, at 38.7 percent. Yet the latter recorded a massive gain from an LSI survey in May, where he picked up a measly 22.7 percent to Joko’s 35.4.

Indeed, several sets of data are showing that he has already taken the longtime front-runner. A United Data Center (PDB) poll, conducted between June 6 and 11, gave Prabowo 31.8 percent and Joko 29.9 percent.

The result marked the end of Joko’s lead in the polls that stretched back to September last year but had been declining rapidly, according to Agus Herta, a senior researcher at the PDB.

While the results from the different pollsters vary, the picture that emerges is undeniable: the presidential election on July 9 will be tighter than anyone could have expected.

For some, this is cause for concern. There are fears that the highly competitive nature of the election may supercharge tensions between rival supporters, brewing a perfect storm of social conflict.

“In the event that the results really are close — around half a percent — there is the possibility of conflict, because one side will not trust the results,” says Asvi Warman Adam, a historian with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).

Asvi points to the violence that regularly mars regional elections throughout Indonesia, most of them arising from narrow margins of victory.

The restive region of Papua saw a particularly deadly election season when 17 people died in August 2011. In 525 regional elections held since 2005, 47 people have been killed and 510 injured, according to a study by the Habibie Center.

Home Affairs Minister Gamawan Fauzi was quoted as telling Detik.com that more than 50 people were killed in that time.

Military observer Al Araf, from the human rights group Imparsial, also cautioned against conflict resulting from a slim margin of victory.

“There is a possibility that conflict could happen from a close result, if the victor wins by just 4 to 5 percent,” he says.

“Secondly, there could be conflict should the Indonesian Military and the police not remain neutral.”

Nevertheless, Al Araf says he does not believe the second scenario has any real possibility of coming into play, even though both presidential candidates have amassed a sizeable support base of retired military generals.

“So far, the military and the police have retained neutral,” he says.

Prabowo’s campaign team includes an impressive roster of former military generals, which is hardly surprising given his own long career in the Army. A group representing the families of military and police personnel has also endorsed his presidential bid.

When asked what citizens may do to help guard against the possibility of conflict, Asvi says, “In my opinion, conflict will not happen should the margin of victory be 10 percent. It is the responsibility of the people to involve others to vote, should they want to avoid a small margin of victory.”

He adds that one doesn’t have to be vocal about one’s political views, only proactive. Even a simple display of support, he says, such as wearing T-shirts with the candidate’s image or name on it, may be enough to motivate others to voter.

At the other end of the spectrum, political expert Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, also of LIPI, says he believes conflict is not on the horizon. He dismisses the notion out of hand, saying, “There’s no way. In a democracy the losing candidate must accept defeat.”

The fact remains that while politics is often a passionate and messy affair, it does not need to devolve into conflict. Regardless of who wins the race, it is peace that must reign.

 

Source/Fuente: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/violence-indonesian-polls-portends-i...