Jakarta. Indonesia’s pollsters are going into overdrive with the presidential elections drawing near.
Polls in March showed a sizable 26.6 percent lead for Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo over former general Prabowo Subianto. Now, with just over three weeks to go, that divide has narrowed to a mere 4 percent.
The immensely popular governor appeared to be the clear front-runner when he declared his candidacy in March and the so-called “Jokowi effect” swept the nation.
That effect failed to take hold, however, as his Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) gained only 19 percent in the April legislative elections — less than the party’s stated goal of 27 percent, or the 30 percent many polls had predicted.
Prabowo had become more of a long-shot candidate when it was clear that Joko would enter the fray. Nevertheless, Prabowo has been able to steadily increase his popular support since March.
Since then, Prabowo has gone from one strength to another, assembling a coalition that has an outright majority in the new House of Representatives and winning a slew of political endorsements.
Joko received a small bump in some polls when he picked the experienced former vice president Jusuf Kalla as his running mate in May.
However, when Golkar — the party with the second-largest number of seats in the House of Representatives — decided to join Prabowo’s coalition, the tide turned once more.
“Prabowo’s campaign is more massive and organized compared with Jokowi’s team,” said Erick Hansnata, a political and economic analyst.
The first two debates have had a considerable impact on public opinion.
The first, which took place on June 9, was widely regarded as a win for Joko and Kalla.
The pair performed better than Prabowo and his running mate, former coordinating economic minister Hatta Rajasa. Prabowo appeared nervous and edgy on stage, reacting to some of Kalla’s questions with anger.
However, without Kalla by his side last Sunday, Joko’s reputation for being too soft-spoken and timid to take on the confident Prabowo proved true.
While Joko revealed more substance in his arguments about the economy, Prabowo’s speaking style outshone his opponent’s weak oratory.
And viewers took note: Post-debate polls from PDB and Puskaptis showed Prabowo leading the race for the first time in the campaign.
The average number of undecided voters has decreased by more than half since May, and virtually all of those voters now support Prabowo, according to a number of different polls.
“Swing voters — who tend to come from the middle class and have access to media — have been persuaded by Prabowo’s appeal and leadership style, which they see as strong and firm, unlike that of the current president,” Hansnata told the Globe on Tuesday.
“Although Joko has measurable and better plans, particularly regarding the economy, his team lacks the experts who can translate that into popularity with the majority of swing voters,” he added.
Joko’s campaign trail has taken him to North Sumatra, Aceh and Papua. The latter two are electorally insignificant due to their small populations, while the former is a region in which the PDI-P made significant gains in the legislative poll in April.
Prabowo has in turn focused on Java, Indonesia’s most densely populated island and an important swing region. He has recently made stops in East Java, a province that typically votes PDI-P, in a bid to win more votes.
“Jokowi must escalate his number of visits to areas where Prabowo’s supporters lead, like West Java,” Hansnata said.
Prabowo has gained over 21 percent in support since March, whereas Jokowi’s place in the polls has barely moved.
With already so narrow a gap between the candidates, Prabowo maintaining his relentless momentum could “make the election too close to call,” Hansnata said.
On Monday the Indonesian Farmers Association (HKTI), formerly headed by Prabowo, give a shock endorsement to Joko and Kalla.
These tit-for-tat gains are endowing the race with an air of unpredictability it did not have before.
The rivals have three debates left for sparring, the last of which will include their vice presidential partners.
Joko will attempt to stem the tide of support for his opponent, while Prabowo will seek to cement a small, emerging lead over his competitor.
If he wants to reverse that trend, “Jokowi should efficiently respond to the negative campaign to gain sympathy from undecided voters,” Hansnata said.
“Jokowi’s team must involve many experts who are credible, objective, and non-partisan for a positive testimony regarding his plans in the economy, law enforcement and government reform,” he told the Globe. “[Jokowi must] massively promote that in the media through the last two weeks.”
Joko needs to revitalize his campaign if he is to defeat the rising Prabowo. Ultimately, all will be put to rest on July 9, when more than 190 million citizens will finally have their say.
Source/Fuente: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/presidential-poll-tides-turn-prabowo/
