Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo leaves an event in Ancol, North Jakarta, with Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chair Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Any talk of Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo joining another party’s presidential ticket in 2014 is groundless because of the hugely popular official’s strong loyalty to the country’s main opposition party, analysts said on Thursday.
Arya Fernandes, an analyst from Charta Politika, a think tank, said the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was fully aware of Joko’s potential.
“The PDI-P has the biggest chance to nominate [Joko] as a presidential candidate and therefore you cannot separate Joko from the PDI-P,” he said.
Adjie Alfaraby, a researcher from the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), said that if Joko ran as a presidential candidate for another party, his electability would not be as high as if he was running for his native PDI-P.
“I think Joko is a loyal politician with political ethics. It’s also clear that he is not the type to carry ou t underhanded political maneuvers. He respects the processes in his party,” Adjie said.
“I think it would be difficult for Joko to run as a presidential candidate for another party without the PDI-P’s approval.”
He added that Joko would still have a chance to win, though not as big as if he was on the PDI-P’s ticket.
Adjie said the PDI-P faced a dilemma over whether to nominate Joko, a relatively new figure in the party, or give the nod to Megawati Sukarnoputri, its longtime chairwoman and two-time presidential candidate.
“All the decisions lie in Megawati’s hands,” Adjie said.
Lucius Karus, from the election watchdog Concerned Citizens for the Indonesian Legislature (Formappi), said the public was able to see through various political parties’ attempts to poach Joko as thei r presidential or vice presidential candidate. He also said the attempts were unlikely to succeed.
“It’s difficult to change the public’s perspective about Joko being a PDI-P member. He’s not the kind to jump ship just to gain power,” Lucius said.
Several other parties, including President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party and the Golkar Party, have expressed interest in getting Joko to run as their presidential or vice presidential candidate for the 2014 election.
For his part, Joko has insisted that he will stick with the PDI-P, even if it does not give him the ticket next year.
Adjie argued that the PDI-P would lose the momentum engendered by Joko’s soaring popularity, dubbed the “Jokowi effect,” if it left its nomination announcement too late.
He said the PDI-P would not be able to harness the full effect if it decided to declare its ticket after the legislative election in April. The presidential election is in July.
“Jokowi is the factor that contributed to PDI-P’s [high] electability,” said.
Said Salahuddin, from the group Public Synergy for Indonesian Democracy (Sigma), said the PDI-P could be popular with voters for two reasons: First, because the public is not happy with the ruling party — a position that the PDI-P benefits from by standing as the opposition.
And second, through its association with Joko, who consistently tops opinion polls of possible presidential candidates.
“So it’s natural to see other parties keen on forming a coalition with the PDI-P,” Said said.
Siti Zuhro, an analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said the PDI-P and Joko could secure victory in the 2014 legislative and presidential elections if they are able to maintain the current political climate.
“The latest signs show that Megawati will respond to the public’s wishes by allowing Joko to run. [She] has shown her closeness to Jokowi on several occasions,” Siti said.
“These signs can be translated as a warning to other political parties not to try to take him away from the PDI-P,” she added, noting that Joko would also boost the electability of the PDI-P in the legislative election.
Ramadhan Pohan, a Democratic Party deputy secretary general, said it was too early to judge Joko’s desirability as a candidate and that he still had to prove himself as a governor.
“We don’t know if the Jokowi phenomenon is just temporary. It would be a mistake if political parties nominated him in the presidential election based on this phenomenon,” he said.
But Ramadhan said that the Democrats were open to the possibility of forming a coalition with the PDI-P for the presidential election.
“Wouldn’t it be good if the Democrats and the PDI-P formed a coalition if both are going to be strong in the 2014 general elections?” he said on Thursday.
Several political parties have not ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the PDI-P or just with Joko. However, most parties agreed they would make their final decision after the legislative election.
Ramadhan said that if the Democrats and the PDI-P formed a coalition, the Democrats would not try to dictate who to nominate as a presidential candidate.
“The PDI-P can have its say. We’re not going to depend on Joko,” he said.
However, Ramadhan also said that it was still a long way to go before the legislative and presidential elections.
“At the moment, we still haven’t decided about a coalition with other parties. It all depends on the outcome of the legislative election,” he said.
Fadli Zon, a deputy chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), acknowledged that Joko was a hard-working figure loved by the public and that his performance as a governor was on the right track.
He said that Gerindra would not rule out the possibility of asking Joko to run as a vice presidential candidate alongside the party’s chief patron, Prabowo Subianto, but added that such a decision would be made after the legislative election.
Patrice Rio Capella, the secretary general of the National Democratic Party (Nasdem), said that as a new party in the political scene, Nasdem was open to various possibilities, including a coalition with the PDI-P or Joko.
“All possibilities are there, but everything will depend on the result of the 2014 legislative election. We are not ruling out any possibility,” he said.
However, senior PDI-P politician Sabam Sirait said the party wanted to nominate its own presidential and vice presidential candidates without forming a coalition, and had therefore set a target of winning 27.2 percent of votes in the legislative election.
To be eligible to nominate a presidential candidate, a party or coalition must win at least 25 percent of votes in the legislative election or hold 20 percent of seats at the House of Representatives. Polls suggest no parties will meet the threshold.
Author/Autor: Carlos Paath
Source/fuente:http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/with-jokos-stock-rising-few-see-2014...
