PDI-P leads polls as election nears

Fuente: 
The Jakarta Post
Fecha de publicación: 
14 Dic 2013

The latest political surveys have placed the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) as the most electable party in the country’s upcoming legislative election.

The country’s biggest opposition party, which was ranked third after the ruling Democratic Party (PD) and the Golkar Party in early 2012, is now leading the pack, with many pollsters attributing its rising popularity to scandals hitting President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s party and the meteoric rise of PDI-P politician and Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

Based on its analysis of 30 opinion polls on political parties’ electability in 2013, the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS) forecast the PDI-P would garner 17.40 percent of the popular vote, trailed by Golkar with 17.01 percent and the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party with 10.51 percent.

The pollster said the party would gain even more votes if the Jokowi factor was included in the equation. It predicted the PDI-P would gain 27.4 percent of the popular vote if it nominated Jokowi before the legislative election in April.

Golkar, currently the biggest ally of President Yudhoyono, would be in second place with 17.2 percent, followed by Gerindra with 9 percent.

“The PDI-P’s electability will rise significantly if it nominates Jokowi before April,” SSS executive director Ari Nurcahyo said.

The study showed the electability of all 11 other parties vying for legislative seats depended on whether Jokowi ran for president, Ari said.

“Even the number of respondents who said they did not yet have a preferred party increased from 22.7 percent in the first scenario [Jokowi nominated] to 23.3 percent in the second scenario [Jokowi not nominated],” he added.

On Wednesday, Indo Barometer named the PDI-P as the most preferred party of voters aged between 17 and 30.

The pollster, which surveyed 1,200 respondents across 33 provinces, put the party on top with 18.8 percent, followed by Golkar (12.9 percent) and Gerindra (8.2 percent).

“Respondents said they would vote for the PDI-P as they considered the party down to earth; clean from corruption, collusion and nepotism; as well as having a good performance, program, vision and mission,” Indo Barometer executive director M. Qodari said.

Last week, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) predicted that the PDI-P would lead the poll with 17.6 percent.

According to the CSIS survey in February 2012, the party’s electability rating was only 7.8 percent, far below PD and Golkar with 12.6 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively.

PDI-P lawmaker Eva Kusuma Sundari considered the surveys “a message” for the party’s chair and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, who had not openly endorsed the idea of nominating Jokowi for president. “I hope Megawati will respond to the latest developments wisely,” she said.

The PDI-P’s internal power struggles are believed to be the major factor why it has not yet named Jokowi its presidential candidate.

The party has officially given the power to name its candidate solely to Megawati, who is rumored to want to mount another run for the presidency.

The PDI-P’s domination in surveys began around the middle of this year. Analysts believe the party’s electability skyrocketed mainly because of the so-called “Jokowi Effect”.

Months after Jokowi surprised many by beating former Jakarta governor Fauzi Bowo of Yudhoyono’s PD in the Jakarta gubernatorial election in September last year, he pleased the citizens of the capital with his low-profile style of leadership and impromptu visits (blusukan) to public offices and villages.

Observers began speaking of “Jokowi for president”, a message that received a positive public response and brought favor to the PDI-P.

Other factors include the plunging electability of the ruling PD, which was believed to be affected by the fall of Yudhoyono’s job approval rating and revelations of numerous graft cases implicating the President’s inner circle and the party’s top members.

Another party also suffering from its members being involved in graft cases is the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Besides the PDI-P, Golkar is also believed to have gained slightly from the fall of the PD and the PKS, even though its chairman Aburizal Bakrie, Golkar’s presidential candidate, is considered far less electable than Jokowi.

 

Source/Fuente:http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/12/14/pdi-p-leads-polls-election...