PAN sits on fence ahead of regional polls

Source: 
Jakarta Post
Publication date: 
Feb 27 2020

After a raucous congress last week, Zulkifli Hasan has secured his second term as National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman. But the shift in political landscape caused by the general election and formation of a new government coalition may bring a new journey for the party that had been part of the government during the first term of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Zulkifli who has become the first chairman to serve two terms in the party, said PAN would neither become part of the government coalition nor the opposition.

“I did not support Pak Jokowi [in the 2019 election], so we cannot join [the government], let us be,” he said on Wednesday while closing the congress in Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi as quoted by Antara. He said the party would become “a critical partner” that would provide solutions for the country’s problems.

Founded in 1999 as a pluralist party, PAN has seen its electoral fortunes fall in each successive general election, from 7.12 percent of the vote in 1999 to 6.44 in 2004, 6.01 in 2009. It experienced a rise to 7.59 percent of the vote in 2014 but fell again to 6.84 in 2019.

Experts say among reasons for its failures is its diminishing popularity, especially among non-Muslim voters, due to the maneuvers of its senior politician and cofounder Amien Rais, who sided with hard-line Islamic groups during the 2019 elections and took an opposition stance against Jokowi. Amien, whose son is married to Zulkifli’s daughter, took the stance during Jokowi’s first term despite PAN being part of the government’s coalition and controlling one seat in the Cabinet.

Zulkifli himself is not known to be a loyal supporter of Jokowi. While he secured the Cabinet position for the party and became People’s Consultative Assembly speaker at that time, the party did not support Jokowi’s presidential bid in 2014 and 2019. In the 2019 presidential election, PAN supported losing presidential challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo’s own Gerindra Party has since joined the ruling coalition and Prabowo is now serving as Jokowi’s defense minister. Zulkiflih approached Jokowi several times after the elections to talk about PAN’s return to the government. But this time he was rejected by other parties in Jokowi’s coalition, which has become bigger than that during the President's first term.

Jokowi’s six-party ruling coalition controls more than 75 percent of the 575-seat House of Representatives, leaving only three political parties in neutral or the opposition, including PAN, with a mere 44 seats. While standing at a crossroads, PAN held the congress on Feb. 11, during which Zulkifli had to face Amien, who supported another member, Mulfachri Harahap, to become chairman. The congress was marred by scuffles among supporters of Zulkifli and Mulfachri.

PAN politician Drajad Wibowo, who also lost during the chairmanship race, said the party was firmly united behind Zulkifli, and would support his decisions on when to support or when to oppose the government. "Zulkifli is in full command,” Drajad told The Jakarta Post Friday.

Now PAN is in a bind. Being an opposition may further alienate the party from legislative and executive powers that may support it in the 2024 general election. But there is no guarantee that by sitting on the fence or even supporting government policies, Jokowi’s coalition would take PAN on board. Zulkifli said his party could not be in the opposition since that would disadvantage the party in the upcoming regional elections in September and the 2024 elections.

As the party is targeting third place in the 2024 legislative poll, the former forestry minister said PAN would need “many friends”. Moreover, he argued that the party would be overshadowed by the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which has claimed to be in opposition to the government.Indonesia Political Review executive director Ujang Komarudin believes PAN is still trying to join the ruling coalition, hoping to repeat its success in 2015 when it wooed Jokowi to accept it as a coalition member.

“When Jokowi and [Vice President] Ma’ruf Amin review their Cabinet, if there is a minister that is uncooperative or not loyal, that’s when PAN could come in,” Ujang told the Post. An extra party in the coalition, he said, could actually benefit Jokowi to ensure that no party, particularly the big ones, are too dominant in dictating policies, he said.

”Competition within the coalition will be fiercer. Each party will push their own interests,” said Ujang.