Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo is still the man to beat in next year’s presidential election, according to the results of a survey released on Wednesday, a day after another poll omitted him from consideration.
Joko, from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), was the candidate of choice for some 26 percent of the 1,200 respondents from 30 provinces covered in the United Data Center (PDB) poll.
In second place was Prabowo Subianto, a retired military general and co-founder of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), with 20 percent, followed by PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri with 13 percent.
The lineup was unchanged from a PDB poll conducted in January, which gave Joko 21 percent, Prabowo 17 percent and Megawati 11 percent.
Didik Rachbini, an economist and the PDB head, said that if the election was held today, Joko would be the clear winner.
“He’s the individual with the best chance of winning the election at this point, but things can change, such as if he’s seen as mishandling the management of Jakarta or if the media and social media momentum behind him changes direction,” he said.
He added that Joko was also the most likeable of the potential candidates, according to 78 percent of respondents, ahead of Prabowo and Jusuf Kalla, the former vice president, at 59 percent each, and Megawati at 58 percent.
The figures come a day after the National Survey Institute (LSN) released poll results with Prabowo squarely in front, with 23 percent of 1,230 respondents in 33 provinces saying they would vote for him.
Aburizal Bakrie, the chairman of the Golkar Party, was second with 16 percent, followed by Wiranto, the former armed forces chief and chairman of the People’s Conscious Party (Hanura), with 13 percent, the same as Megawati.
LSN officials said that Joko did not feature in their poll because it focused only on the most senior figures from each political party. However, they noted that Joko trounced Megawati on a separate question asking respondents to rank the best candidates within the PDI-P. Some 68 percent of respondents said they would pick Joko over Megawati.
The PDB poll also identified the PDI-P and Golkar as the two parties to beat in next year’s legislative election, with 14.5 and 14 percent of respondents respectively saying they would vote for them.
The Democratic Party, which won 20.8 percent of votes in the 2009 election, was a distant third with 9 percent in the survey.
Didik said that while the results appeared to bode well for the PDI-P in both the legislative and presidential elections, the fact remained that the party was sharply divided on whether to back Joko or Megawati for president.
“The share of internal support between Joko and Megawati is fairly even at this point,” he said.
He added that Prabowo, and not Megawati, would be the chief beneficiary if Joko deferred to seniority and chose not to run in place of the PDI-P chairwoman.
“If Joko doesn’t get the nomination from the PDI-P, then Prabowo will go on to win the vote because he’s second in terms of popularity,” Didik said.
by:SP/Erwing Sihombing
source:http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/fresh-survey-reaffirms-jokos-rise/
