Aburizal Bakrie may not be the most popular presidential hopeful, but a new poll suggests the businessman and Golkar politician may at least be the among the most notorious ahead of the 2014 elections.
In a survey conducted by the United Data Center (PDB) his name was the first to be mentioned by 22 percent of 1,200 respondents across 30 provinces, in regards to next year’s presidential bid.
Running neck-and-neck with Aburizal in the poll was Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), who scored 21 percent of first mentions, while Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo of the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), who in most surveys emerged as a top potential candidate, ranked third with 17 percent.
The result contrasts with voting intentions, which according to another poll by PDB, places Aburizal in a distant fourth spot with just 12 percent support.
Muhammad Qodari, the executive director of survey agency Indo Barometer, says that polls notwithstanding, Aburizal has a good chance in next year’s election because of support from Golkar.
“I think there’s definitely a good chance that he will end up among the top [candidates],” Qodari told the Jakarta Globe.
Earlier this year, Golkar officially nominated Aburizal as its candidate for the presidential election. The party was able to do so since it satisfies the “threshold” requirement of holding at least 20 percent of seats in the national legislature.
Aburizal remains the only candidate to have been endorsed by a party or coalition of parties who meet the 20 percent threshold. Other major political parties are either split between rival candidates or still seeking to form a coalition.
“The electability of the Golkar Party is already at its peak, and my popularity is still on the rise,” Aburizal told the media recently, confident about his chances.
“God willing, I will try my hardest to go to different provinces and ask for the support and blessing of the public.”
Solid background
Aburizal has years of political and government experience. In addition to being Golkar chairman since 2009, he served as coordinating minister for the economy from 2004 to 2005, when he become coordinating minister for people’s welfare, a role he performed until 2009.
According to Qodari, Aburizal’s leadership track record, both in government and in his family-owned company, Bakrie Group, shows that Aburizal has what it takes to serve as president.
Aburizal’s business credentials may also attract some support.
“The way people see it, if their president is already financially secure, there is less chance they’ll take the people’s money,” Qodari said.
“His status as a successful businessman might make it difficult for some people to see him as a down-to-earth people’s leader, but I think his finances will primarily become an advantage.”
Aburizal’s appointment as coordinating minister of the economy by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was initially controversial. But Aburizal pushed on, announcing he would seek to reduce the number of Indonesians living below the poverty line by 3 percent through reallocation of government subsidies.
Muddy issues
Despite Aburizal being equipped with impressive qualifications, some people remain doubtful of his presidential chances.
“To speak candidly, the chance of Aburizal staying in the presidential race is rather unlikely, even if the Golkar Party tries to boost Bakrie from all sides and familiarize him from Sabang to Merauke,” Siti Zuhro, a senior researcher at the Indonesia Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said, invoking the idiom that refers to the nation from its western tip in Aceh to its east in Papua.
“This election will involve all 33 provinces and 497 regencies and cities. The majority of the voters are from the middle and lower class. It’s going to be hard to convince them to use their votes to elect Aburizal,” she said.
Siti said Aburizal’s involvement in the Sidoarjo mudflow disaster, which affected 16 villages in East Java in 2006, will complicate his campaign.
Lapindo Brantas, the gas firm accused by some people of being responsible for the mudflow, is owned by Aburizal’s family.
According to PDB, the disaster is the reason Aburizal is the most immediately memorable presidential candidate in its latest poll.
“If there’s something that would most likely trip up Aburizal, it would be his Lapindo scandal. For East Java, especially, the case isn’t over. It’s not something that people can decide to turn a blind eye to,” said Siti.
“Cases like the Lapindo disaster, its violation of human rights and transgressions against the law, need to be resolved before we can deem a candidate worthy to lead. The public will scrutinize the candidates because no one wants to buy a pig in a poke.”
To popular ire, in June the government allocated Rp 155 billion ($15.1 million) from the state budget to reimburse the losses of the mudflow victims. The government was accused of funding corporate welfare, relieving the Bakrie Group company of its financial obligations.
The Javanese effect
Siti said that Aburizal’s non-Javanese ethnicity may also dim his chances.
“Looking at previous patterns, people in Java are more willing to elect a Javanese leader as the head of state,” Siti said, suggesting it could disadvantage Aburizal, whose family origins lie in Lampung in southern Sumatra.
Siti cited Aburizal’s recent advertising campaign advocating preservation of Javanese culture, saying it was likely a sign of recognition that the Javanese vote is important in his bid for the presidency.
“Trying to get Aburizal more support than he already has will be difficult, compared to, for example, Joko Widodo,” Siti said, referring to the Jakarta governor, whose origins are in Central Java.
But Aburizal may get more support if he finds a running mate with high approval ratings, the academic added.
Indo Barometer’s Qodari, however, argued that Aburizal’s ethnicity would not have a big impact.
“Personally, I don’t think ethnicity is an important factor. A leader should be chosen because he is capable and has the character that the public seeks,” Qodari said.
“Indonesian voters are not as ‘primitive’ as many experts deem them to be. A lot of people are starting to overlook similarity in backgrounds and seeking similarity in perception and personality. If Aburizal is going to be chosen, it’s going to be for his qualifications and character.”
PDB and the Jakarta Globe are both part of the Lippo Group.
by: Stephanie Hendarta
source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/cashed-up-well-known-and-keen-to-lead/
