There was growing international concern yesterday over the future ofAfghanistan after the trailing candidate in the country's presidential election toyed publicly with setting up a parallel government, the latest crisis to hit a poll that had been hailed as a showcase of the country's transformation.
Former mujahideen doctor Abdullah Abdullah declared himself winner of the vote the day after election officials released preliminary results suggesting the opposite. The million-ballot lead of rival Ashraf Ghani was a surprise to no one in either camp, but Abdullah's team said it had been accomplished by fraud and fiercely resisted publication of numbers they say give a false picture.
Abdullah swore to a crowd of thousands in Kabul that he would put his life on the line to stop a "fake government" taking power, and hinted that he was considering forming a cabinet of his own, although he asked for more time to unravel the crisis.
"There is no doubt we are the winners of this election," he told supporters who had earlier torn down and ripped up a vast portrait of the outgoing president, Hamid Karzai, who Abdullah has accused of colluding in fraud. "The people are waiting for the announcement of our government," he added.
Overnight discussions with the US president, Barack Obama, and secretary of state, John Kerry, may have persuaded Abdullah to put some distance between him and the supporters who called for a "parallel government" and "civil unrest" within hours of results coming out.
Kerry issued a stern public warning that any attempt to abandon the messy democratic process would mean an end to US aid. "I have noted reports of protests in Afghanistan and of suggestions of a 'parallel government' with the gravest concern," he said in a statement that also called on Afghan security forces to remain neutral.
"There is no justifiable recourse to violence or threats of violence … Any action to take power by extra-legal means will cost Afghanistan the financial and security support of the United States and the international community."
The preliminary results gave Ghani 56% of the vote, although poll organisers warned that there was no winner yet and that the outcome could change after extensive fraud complaints were investigated.
Abdullah says 2 million of Ghani's votes from the 14 June run-off poll are fake, pointing to dramatic leaps in turnout from the first round in April. In one province, support for him rose tenfold and it doubled, tripled or quadrupled in other areas.
Ghani's team say transport for voters, televised townhall-style discussions, and unprecedented agreements to let women vote in his conservative rural strongholds helped him pick up more than 2m extra votes.
Both candidates have agreed to audits of around 3m ballots from polling stations that triggered fraud concerns, including those with unusually high ratios of female voters, or where almost all available voting papers were used up.
Abdullah had pushed for those checks to be carried out before any results were released. Instead, a narrower fraud survey was done on around 1m votes. Under 12,000 ballots were thrown out by the end, figures that Ghani highlighted on Tuesday as a sign that the poll was largely clean.
Ghani dismissed concerns that Afghanistan's stability was at risk, saying he respected his rival as a "national figure" committed to unity.
"Talk of parallel governments will remain at the level of talk, because of the historic responsibility that his excellency Dr Abdullah and I … have to ensure the stability of this country," Ghani told reporters, after confirming that he fully backed a wider audit of the results. Ghani also said he was open to talks with his rival, in an apparent softening of his position on a possible coalition government.
He had previously insisted that were he to be declared winner, Abdullah would have to concede defeat before any discussion of jobs could begin.
"We do not have preconditions for political discussions because we must engage in finding solutions … to ensure the legitimacy of the process, its fairness and the acceptance of its results."
Afghanistan's new president should be inaugurated on 2 August, in the country's first democratic transfer of power. Voting was initially hailed as a qualified success after the police and army held off the majority of Taliban attacks and Afghans turned out in unexpectedly high numbers.
But the process has since lurched into dangerous political theatre, which a country already hobbled by a feeble economy and struggling against a tenacious insurgency can ill afford. British foreign secretary William Haguecalled on Afghan leaders on Tuesday to resolve the crisis in an "orderly and legitimate way", summoning up the spectre of Iraq's rapid splintering.
"It's very important for Afghan leaders to learn from what is happening in Iraq [though] it is a different situation," he told journalists in India. "It is important that Afghanistan's leaders work together and do not allow the fragmentation of the political process … Iraq has suffered from a failure to have an inclusive government in recent years."
A speedy transition is particularly crucial to Afghanistan's security because Karzai, who was barred by the constitution from standing again, has refused to sign a long-term security deal with the US, saying that it is a decision for his successor.
Without the bilateral security agreement in place, all Nato and US forces will leave by the end of this year, leaving the still-fragile Afghan army and police to face the Taliban without the backing of foreign air power, intelligence, training, or logistics.
The United Nations, which has been playing a key role mediating between the candidates, joined international calls for calm and warned candidates to stop supporters "making any irresponsible statements and from taking steps that could lead to civil disorder and instability." It also urged election officials to press on with a fast and rigorous audit.
