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If the public gives Erdoğan's party the same number of or more votes as it received in the last elections, this means, according to Erdoğan's logic, that people do not see any corruption; they only see coup plotters.
The other day the Taraf daily published an interesting interview with Prof. Yaşar Sarıbay from Uludağ University. Sarıbay is an expert on Islamist and conservative movements in Turkey. In this interview he brought up quite thought-provoking elements to the current discussion going on in Turkey.
According to Sarıbay this is a patrimonial system but not in the sense that the source of power is heretical. The leader in this system is a father figure (the head of the household). The people expect things from him that they normally would expect from a father in the family: fatherly affection, authority and so on.
In this system, the father (leader) is the one single person who decides who deserves what and how much. This father figure may also deprive some people from the benefits of the family while giving large quantities to others.
Sarıbay also had quite interesting theories regarding how the conservative grassroots of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) may be viewing the allegations over corruption. Sarıbay says these people believe in their leader, especially if there are indefinite elements in the situation, such as if the leader says the recordings are the productions of “dubbing” and “montage.”
Well, after this long parenthesis, if we return to the beginning of this article, namely the meaning of the upcoming elections, it is obvious that they represent a kind of referendum in which Erdoğan will see if he is able to preserve his legitimacy and if people are paying heed to the corruption allegations. When I say “people,” I do not mean everyone in Turkey. For Erdoğan what matters are the tendencies of his constituency only.
Sarıbay has also some predictions for post-election Turkey. First of all, he does not believe the AK Party will lose any votes, which I have some doubts over. However, I agree with Sarıbay on what will happen if the AK Party maintains its percentage of votes or even increases them. Sarıbay predicts that in this case, Erdoğan will believe people see him as being right and politics along the axis of “friends and enemies” will be much stronger. They will also seek revenge, saying “You were in this coup against the government as well.”
Well, in case of an election victory, I am afraid this is exactly what will happen in Turkey. Erdoğan will start a witch hunt and we will witness the establishment of an Orwellian regime in Turkey in which National Intelligence Organization (MİT) will have a central role.
I, of course, hope history will take a different course which will bring more democracy, accountability and transparency to Turkey. But I cannot ignore the other possibility unfortunately.
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