After the highly charged and polarized period leading up to the March 30 municipal elections, the people of Turkey remained glued to their TV screens until the early hours of March 31, following nail-biting races in a number of cities, especially the one in Ankara, the capital. One would think that the day after the elections would be a day to rest and recover from the hassle and fatigue. It wasn't to be.
The elections were anything but flawless. A number of declared losers appealed for recounts following the extremely tight races in the cities of Ankara, Adana (the fourth largest city) and Antalya (the biggest Mediterranean city) and in some towns in Istanbul and Izmir provinces, Yalova province (close to Istanbul), as well as in the east and southeast. (Yalova was first announced as a win for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), but a recount gave the victory to the Republican People's Party (CHP) by a six-vote margin.) While votes were being counted, 45 of Turkey’s 81 provinces experienced power outages, casting doubts on the security of the elections. Taner Yildiz, the minister of energy and natural resources, then offended people's intelligence by claiming that a power outage in Ankara had been caused by a cat entering a transformer. Thus, he provided social media with endless opportunities for humor and sarcasm.
Arguments challenging the official results inevitably erupted. Although most of the disputes were between the ruling AKP and main opposition CHP, there were also serious disagreements in Adana between the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and the AKP and in the east and southeast between the AKP and Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), which is generally considered the legal arm of the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK).
Arguments evolved into clashes with the police in Ankara. Twenty-four hours after balloting ended, the police arrived to hose down scores of CHP supporters waiting outside the High Council of Elections. Mayhem ensued. While the hope was for a period of calm, at least for a while after such a tense pre-election period, the opposite occurred, and Turkey continued to look like a country addicted to tension.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, delivering a victory speech from the balcony of AKP headquarters in Ankara on March 30, shifted from references to a “state of union” or “call to unity” to a “declaration of war,” which was noted by most observers.
Against whom has war been declared? Mainly Erdogan's presumed public enemy number one — Fethullah Gulen, a former Erdogan ally in self-imposed exile for 15 years in Pennsylvania, and his followers. Buoyed by the AKP's solid support of 44% of Turkey’s voters, Erdogan swore vengeance against his enemies-turned-allies and otherwise thundered. “We will enter their lair,” were his words, as if preparing to hunt bear. He threatened, as well, “They are going to pay the price.”
International media did not miss Erdogan's signals or what they mean for Turkey in the near future. The New York Times, for instance, ran an editorial on Turkey for the third time in three months, this one titled “Prime Minister Erdogan’s Revenge.” It states, “Mr. Erdogan has disparaged his political adversaries as traitors, terrorists and an alliance of evil. In his postelection speech, he repeatedly mentioned Pennsylvania and suggested the government would take aim at Mr. Gulen’s supporters, possibly with mass arrests.”
These mass arrests, or as many in Turkey fear “witch hunt,” might leave its mark on the postelection period, which is also the campaign period for the presidential elections scheduled for fall 2014. The March elections transformed Erdogan from an “embattled prime minister” into an “emboldened leader” and a hopeful in the contest to become the first popularly elected president in Turkey’s history.
The New York Times editorial board did not overlook this point and the significant consequences of the March results, expressing an assessment shared by many in many media: “The election undoubtedly strengthens Mr. Erdogan’s hand to run for president later this year. Neither the Republican People’s Party, a secular party, nor any other Turkish opposition group has shown the ability to field a candidate who could mount a serious challenge.” It continued, “But instead of defending himself against the corruption charges according to a legal procedure, Mr. Erdogan seems determined to crush anyone or anything who crosses him — a strategy that almost certainly guarantees more dangerous political polarization and instability in Turkey.”
The corruption charges? They not only bode ill for more dangerous polarization and instability in Turkey but also retain a grip on the victor of the latest elections, who nonetheless feels his hand is strengthened to run for president even if tainted.
Unable to dodge the issue, during the AKP victory celebrations Erdogan appeared on the balcony of the AKP headquarters with his son Bilal, daughter Sumeyye and son-in-law Berat, all of whom have been implicated by the leaked recordings alleging corruption (along with two former ministers who were forced to resign because of corruption charges and businessmen close to him). The celebration was choreographed as Erdogan wanted, and nobody missed this point, viewing it as a sign of defiance in the face of the corruption allegations. Everyone also saw it as Erdogan's interpretation of the day's election results.
Among the difficult-to-forget moments of election night were Erdogan’s emergence onto the balcony, waving his hands and raising the four-finger salute of support for the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and his declaring the situation between Turkey and Syria a “state of war” (which, of course, had nothing to do with international law).
The March elections, despite some flaws and perhaps being rigged in some places, undoubtedly vindicated Erdogan. For him, this incontestable triumph absolved him, his family and his close associates in the AKP and in the business community of the corruption allegations against them.
One writer for T24, the Internet newspaper that has brought together journalists and writers who lost their jobs through Erdogan’s intervention, wrote the following in “Only Erdogan won”:
Erdogan believes that he has been absolved of all illegalities, and that he will continue to be exonerated from all illegalities henceforth. Even scarier is that his AKP parliamentarians and state officials believe it, too. But don’t forget, AKP voters did not absolve Erdogan. Anyway, they don’t have the authority and power to do so. AKP voters approved of Erdogan with the message “Whatever happens, do whatever you want.” His voters said, “Steal if you want, suppress if you want, kill, annihilate, whatever, we are with you.” But they didn’t say, “You are clean.” They said, “You are tainted, but we like you this way.”
As fellow Al-Monitor columnist Kadri Gursel wrote, “Any local election result that the government can boast of as a success, can only be interpreted as voters consenting to corruption.”
Other comments on the outcome of the March elections aside, it is certain that the AKP's 44% share of the vote has nourished Erdogan’s self-confidence and strengthened his conviction in his invincibility. He is thus more likely to now set out on the road toward the presidency with more determination than he had in the pre-election period. If he takes that road, he will be even more ruthless against any obstacles he might encounter along the way.
It will not, however, be an easy ride for him. Neither for Turkey.
Source/Fuente: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/erdogan-presidency-emb...
