There is a general assumption that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan — following on the strong turnout secured by his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the municipal elections — will emerge as a candidate for the presidency and will win. The likelihood of this happening increased after Abdullah Gul, the incumbent president, signaled that he will stand aside and thus not pose an obstacle by running himself.
Erdogan and Gul met on March 31, after it became clear the AKP had taken nearly 45% of the overall vote in the municipal elections the preceding day. Although the full details of their discussion are not known, the two men are believed to have arrived at an understanding concerning the presidency. They are co-founders of the AKP, which they guided to power in 2002 and have kept there since. Despite appearing to differ with Erdogan on key issues pertaining to Turkey's democracy, Gul has signed every law put before him by the government, including those enabling it to ban Twitter and YouTube at will. This is being taken as a clear signal that Gul has the AKP’s political interests foremost in his mind.
Based on a constitutional amendment adopted in 2007, in the elections scheduled for Aug. 10 the Turkish president will for the first time be elected by popular vote. If one candidate fails to win a majority in the first round of balloting, a second round will be held to determine the winner on the basis of the highest vote count. Before the amendment, the president had been elected by parliamentary deputies.
Key AKP figures are openly declaring that Erdogan is their presidential candidate and that they expect him to win comfortably. According to Mustafa Sentop, deputy head of the AKP in charge of election strategy, the results of the municipal elections are a “green light” from the electorate for an Erdogan presidency. Deputy Prime Minister Emrullah Isler has no doubt that Erdogan will win comfortably in the first round.
Such optimistic outlooks are supported by Adil Gur, whose A&G Research company correctly predicted the results of the municipal contest. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal Turkey, Gur contended the municipal election results will enable Erdogan to win the presidential election. He also said that if Erdogan indeed wins, he is likely to bring the 2015 general elections forward to this year. Erdogan, however, is on record discounting such a possibility.
Prior to flying to Azerbaijan on an official visit on April 4, Erdogan told reporters that early elections were out of the question “as a matter of party principle.” Despite Erdogan’s remark, nothing appears a foregone conclusion at this point in time, regardless of general expectations and the statements of senior AKP officials.
There remains the cardinal question of what will become of President Gul after Erdogan takes the presidency. The calculation within the AKP is that Gul will assume leadership of the party and then emerge as prime minister. He must first, however, become an elected deputy for this to happen. The AKP’s plan, as revealed to the media by party sources, is to have Gul elected in a by-election after the presidential elections, possibly from the eastern city of Bayburt, where a seat will be conveniently vacated for him by an AKP deputy.
Not everyone within the AKP appears to be happy about this arrangement. Cemil Cicek, parliament speaker and a senior AKP member who served as justice minister from 2003 to 2007, is concerned that a “clash of authority” will emerge if Erdogan becomes president and Gul the prime minister. In an exclusive interview with Radikal on Apr. 6, Cicek said both men were worthy of the jobs, explaining that he is not concerned about the people in this instance, but with rules.
“You will have an [elected] president vested with great authority. On the other hand you will have an elected prime minister who will have the majority in parliament. What will the relationship be between an inviolable president with authority and an effective prime minister? How will the relationship be between the president the legislature and the judiciary?” Cicek pondered.
He went on to assert that no system of democracy exists in the world where authority clashes in this manner. He said the overall situation was not healthy from the perspective of advanced democracies and posed serious problems. Aware of the issues that Cicek notes, sources close to the AKP have begun talking about a “semi-presidential system” for Turkey that will enable Erdogan and Gul to cohabit without stepping on each other’s toes.
Hurriyet reported on April 8 that the AKP’s focus in the 2015 general election campaign will be on a constitutional amendment to enable this. Corroborating the report, Mehmet Ali Sahin, another AKP deputy head, told CNN Turk on April 7 that the new system of government could be a presidential system or a semi-presidential one. “Turkey will inevitably move in that direction once the president is elected by the people,” Sahin said.
This, too, is not a certainty given that it is unclear that Turks, who are used to parliamentary democracy, will opt — as AKP sources are suggesting — for a presidential, or even a semi-presidential system that invests the executive with great powers and is subject to few checks and balances.
Erdogan, who in the past has made clear his preference for a strong presidential system, faces other difficulties. For one thing, when taken at face value, the 45% his party won in the municipal elections leaves the opposition in the majority. A&G's Gur believes, however, that supporters of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) will vote for Erdogan in the presidential elections.
It is generally believed that BDP supporters will vote for Erdogan because of the rights the Kurds have gained under the AKP. The MHP, which got 15% of the votes in the municipal elections, is vehemently opposed to the AKP’s Kurdish reforms. It is thus an open question whether its supporters will vote for Erdogan.
If, on the other hand, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the MHP can agree on a single candidate — one who is not only viable but also commands public respect — the electoral path for Erdogan could get tough. Presidential elections, after all, are not only unlike municipal and general elections but also represent politically uncharted territory for Turkey at this stage.
There is also the issue of Erdogan’s abrasive personality, which has harmed him internationally, leaving him with the image of an authoritarian leader with anti-democratic tendencies. It is uncertain whether the public will prefer an angry and vindictive leader at the helm of the republic or someone who is more statesmanlike and at peace with the world at large.
In his Wall Street Journal interview, Gur, while rating Erdogan’s presidential chances as high, nevertheless acknowledged that sustained tension is ultimately a liability for politicians. “Turks like to watch a fight, but they don’t like fighters,” he said.
Aware of the anti-democratic image that has stuck to Erdogan and the AKP, Sentop, the party’s election strategist, tellingly admitted that the tense political climate in the country is not suitable for drafting a new constitution. This would make it unlikely that the necessary constitutional infrastructure for a strong presidency could be produced anytime soon.
Sentop indicated, however, that the AKP will henceforth make “the winds of democracy prevail.” This suggests the party will be courting the electorate with new reform packages. The speculation is that the AKP is eyeing the Kurdish and Alevi constituencies in the first instance, with a view toward garnering their support for an Erdogan presidency.
It thus remains to be seen whether developments justify the optimism in the AKP camp or whether Turkey will produce some unexpected surprises in the lead-up to the presidential elections. The bottom line is that although Erdogan appears to be well-positioned in regard to his assumed presidential candidacy and victory, it nonetheless cannot be considered a foregone conclusion.
Source/Fuente: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/erdogan-already-presid...
