Post-election Analysis

Post-electoral Analysis: Iran Presidential Elections 14th June 2013

Successive presidential elections with surprising and unexpected results (1997, 2005 and 2009) have now made clear to academics, journalists and governments that it is impossible to predict Iranian election results. None of the analysis prior to the June 14 elections took into account the possibility that the hojatoleslam and doctor1, Hassan Feridon - better known as Rouhani - would win outright in the first round. However, many were those who predicted that Rouhani might compete in a second round against the current mayor of Tehran, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, or even that this latter might win in either the first or second rounds. Some bolder analysts even asserted that Saeed Jalili, the current nuclear negotiator, could win, thanks to the direct support of Leader Ali Khamenei and the Pasdaran, as in 2005 with Ahmadinejad. Following the election, many analysts have attempted to decrypt the results, trying to shed light on the reasons for yet another surprise and especially, to discover the keys that will help predict what might happen during Rouhani's presidency or in future elections.